Before El Niño Strikes: Commodity & Regional Impacts for H2 2026

The late-spring NOAA update is in. ENSO probabilities are shifting — and for corn, wheat, coffee, sugar, and palm oil, the second half of the year just got harder to call.

Most forecasters treat El Niño as a yes/no event. Helios AI treats it as a scenario tree. In this flagship 50-minute briefing, we map each probability path to the commodities most likely to feel it — and put a number on the exposure.

What we'll cover:

• Where the latest NOAA update lands on the El Niño / La Niña / neutral spectrum — and what that distribution actually means
• Which commodities face the highest climate-driven supply risk in H2 across each scenario
• How Helios AI's proprietary climate and price models are reading the setup right now for corn, wheat, coffee, sugar, and palm oil
• What procurement and trading teams should be doing before the signal resolves

This session extends Helios AI CEO Francisco Martin-Rayo's three-clock framework — the macro clock, the policy clock, and the climate clock — into the one variable that hasn't been resolved yet. Timed to land just as the NOAA update drops, this is the briefing that turns a probability distribution into a decision.

Followed by a written recap note distributed to all registrants.

Moderator: João Pedro Rodrigues Morciani

Featured guest speaker: Dr. Sathia Varqa from Fastmarkets Agriculture